The Future of Multilateralism: Can the UN System Survive Great Power Rivalry?

   

      What Future for Multilateralism!

Geopolitics vs. Global Governance

The multilateral system, centered around the United Nations (UN), was born from the ashes of World War II, founded on the premise of collective security and shared responsibility. For decades, it provided a platform for cooperation on issues ranging from peacebuilding and human rights to economic development and public health.¹ Today, however, this system faces an existential threat: the resurgence of intense great power rivalry, notably between the United States and China, compounded by Russia's aggressive actions and increasing global fragmentation.² The fundamental question is: can the UN system, built for a unipolar or bipolar world, adapt to a new era of strategic competition, or is the future of global governance destined to be fractured?

 

  How Rivalry Weakens the UN

The core mechanisms of the UN system are being stretched and paralyzed by competing national interests, making meaningful collective action increasingly difficult.

1. The Paralysis of the Security Council (UNSC)

·         Keyword Integration: The UN Security Council is the linchpin of global peace and security, yet it is where geopolitical tensions are most visible.

·         The Veto Power: The permanent members (P5)—the US, UK, France, China, and Russia—wielding the veto power, were intended to ensure that no collective action would be taken against a major power. However, in the current climate, this power is routinely used to block resolutions on critical global issues, such as the conflict in Ukraine or humanitarian crises in the Middle East and Syria. This impasse undermines the Council’s credibility and ability to respond effectively to new conflicts, leaving the world vulnerable.

2. Weaponization of Institutions and Norms

·         Keyword Integration: Great power rivalry is not just about military build-ups; it's also about a contest for influence, leading to the weaponization of international organizations.

·         Contesting Norms: Powers like China and Russia have been actively expanding their influence within UN specialized agencies, sometimes promoting norms that emphasize state sovereignty over individual human rights.³ Conversely, the US and its allies often push back, creating ideological splits. This struggle turns technical and humanitarian bodies (like WHO or ITU) into arenas for systemic competition, diverting focus from their core mandates.

3. The Challenge to Liberal Internationalism

·         The post-war order was largely underpinned by Western liberal principles.⁴ The rise of new powers advocating for alternative models of global governance, often prioritizing domestic stability and state-centric development over Western democratic norms, fundamentally challenges the philosophical basis of multilateralism. This ideological schism makes building consensus on critical issues like human rights, trade, and even climate policy significantly harder.

  Technology and Economic Fragmentation

Beyond traditional security concerns, the future of multilateralism is being determined by technological and economic competition.

1. Fragmentation of the Global Economy

·         Keyword Integration: Economic decoupling and trade wars, driven by the US-China rivalry, introduce immense strain on institutions like the WTO.

·         Techno-Nationalism: The drive for technological supremacy in areas like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and 5G has led to techno-nationalism, where states prioritize national technological autonomy over open, shared standards. The absence of a robust multilateral framework for regulating these new technologies threatens to create competing, siloed technological spheres, further undermining global interconnectivity and cooperation.

2. Competition in the Global South

·         Both the US and China are actively vying for influence in the Global South through development aid, infrastructure projects, and diplomatic engagement within the UN. While this competition can sometimes lead to increased investment, it often forces developing nations into difficult choices, fragmenting political blocs within the UN General Assembly and hindering unified action on shared challenges like sustainable development and climate change.

  Reimagining Multilateralism to Survive

The UN system is undeniably struggling, but its total collapse would be catastrophic, leading to a world without essential coordination mechanisms for global public goods. Survival hinges on radical adaptation.

1. Focusing on Collective Action Imperatives

·         Keyword Integration: The future of international cooperation must focus on challenges that absolutely require global collective action, regardless of geopolitical tensions.⁵

·         The Unavoidables: Issues like climate change, global public health (pandemics), nuclear non-proliferation, and cross-border financial stability cannot be solved unilaterally.⁶ Focusing on these global public goods can provide a vital common ground where rivals can find pragmatic, self-interested reasons to cooperate.

2. Reform and Legitimacy

·         Reform of the UN Security Council is essential to restore legitimacy. While politically challenging, proposals for expanding membership (including major powers like India, Germany, Japan, and Brazil) or restricting the use of the veto in cases of mass atrocities are gaining traction. A system that better reflects the current multipolar world would be more legitimate and resilient.

3. The Rise of "Mini-lateralism" and Coalitions

·         In areas where the UN is deadlocked, multilateralism is evolving into "mini-lateralism"—smaller, issue-specific coalitions of the willing (e.g., G7, G20, or specialized alliances for climate action). While these formats cannot replace the universal reach of the UN, they can provide a necessary dynamism, finding solutions that can later be integrated back into the UN framework when consensus is possible.

 

  A Darwinian Moment for the UN

The UN system is facing a "Darwinian moment," where adaptation is a prerequisite for survival. While great power rivalry threatens to dismantle the consensus-based foundation of the post-war order, the sheer scale of modern global challenges—from pandemics to environmental collapse—underscores that multilateralism is not an option but a necessity. The UN system may not look the same in the decades to come; it will likely be messier, slower, and more reliant on flexible coalitions. However, as the indispensable platform for dialogue, its continued existence—even in a reformed and contested form—remains vital to preventing the world from fully fragmenting into competing spheres of influence.