Farewell, Israel! by Ephraim Sevela – A Deep, Critical Book Review

  

Environmental Degradation

 Climate Change as a Geopolitical Crisis

For decades, climate change was primarily viewed through an environmental and economic lens—a challenge for scientists and activists. Today, it has unmistakably transitioned into a primary global security threat, redefining international relations and forcing a radical reassessment of diplomatic and military strategy.

The gradual, persistent warming of the planet is not just melting ice caps; it is melting political stability, driving resource wars, accelerating mass migration, and creating new flashpoints across the globe. As environmental degradation intensifies, the very foundations of existing global alliances are being tested, giving rise to complex new alignments of interest, cooperation, and conflict.

This article delves into the mechanisms through which climate disruption acts as a threat multiplier, reshaping state resilience, security planning, and the geopolitical map of the 21st century.

 

I. The Climate-Security Nexus: Understanding the Threat Multiplier

The concept of climate change as a threat multiplier is central to modern security analysis.¹ It does not cause conflict on its own, but it rapidly exacerbates existing socio-economic, political, and cultural fragilities, pushing vulnerable regions past a tipping point.

A. Resource Scarcity and Competition

The most immediate security threat stems from the increased scarcity of vital resources—namely water and arable land—driven by shifting weather patterns, prolonged droughts, and desertification.

·         Water Wars: In regions like the Middle East and Central Asia, shared river systems (such as the Nile, the Tigris-Euphrates, and the Indus) become points of fierce diplomatic and, potentially, military contention. Upstream dam construction, driven by water scarcity, directly threatens the downstream stability and agricultural viability of neighboring states, turning rivers into strategic weapons.

·         Land Degradation and Food Insecurity: Increasing temperatures and irregular rainfall reduce crop yields.² Food insecurity leads to price spikes, which historically correlate with political unrest and mass protests, acting as a catalyst for civil war or governmental collapse in fragile states.

B. Forced Migration and Border Stress

Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and drought are rendering vast areas uninhabitable, creating the phenomenon of climate migration.³

·         Internal Displacement: Millions are forced to move from rural areas to already stressed urban centers, leading to overcrowding, competition for resources, and ethnic or social friction.

·         International Migration and Border Security: Large-scale, transnational movement of people places immense pressure on receiving countries, often leading to xenophobia, the rise of nationalist political movements, and increased militarization of borders. This stress can fracture alliances between neighboring states that historically shared open borders or cooperative immigration policies.

II. Geopolitical Flashpoints and New Arenas of Competition

Climate change is not only escalating old conflicts; it is creating entirely new spheres of strategic interest, particularly in previously inaccessible areas.⁴

A. The Arctic Scramble: The New Cold War Frontier

The rapid melting of the Arctic ice cap has transformed the region into a major geopolitical flashpoint.⁵

·         Navigational Access: The opening of the Northern Sea Route offers dramatically shorter shipping lanes between Asia and Europe, attracting commercial interest and military presence.⁶

·         Resource Exploitation: The vast untapped oil, gas, and mineral reserves beneath the Arctic seabed are now becoming accessible, leading to competing territorial claims by Russia, the US, Canada, Denmark, and Norway.

·         Military Presence: This competition has led to an unprecedented military build-up by bordering nations, raising the specter of naval clashes and requiring NATO and other Western security organizations to formulate new strategies for a previously low-priority domain.

B. Instability in Fragile States

Climate-induced disasters disproportionately affect states with weak governance and low climate resilience (often in the Sahel, parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia).⁷

·         Power Vacuums: When states cannot provide basic services—like disaster relief, clean water, or food—legitimacy collapses, creating a power vacuum that extremist and non-state armed groups are quick to exploit.

·         Transnational Threats: The failure of states creates sanctuaries for transnational criminal networks, piracy, and terrorism, necessitating costly and complex international stabilization efforts, often straining the resources of major powers.

 

III. Reshaping Global Alliances: Cooperation and Fragmentation

The unique, existential nature of the climate security threat is having a dual effect on global cooperation: it is forcing unprecedented coordination in some areas, while simultaneously driving fragmentation in others.

A. The Rise of Climate Coalitions

Climate change is forging new global alliances based on shared vulnerability and mutual risk.

·         Small Island Developing States (SIDS): These nations, facing existential threats from sea-level rise, have become powerful, unified voices in international climate diplomacy, often forming alliances with developed states on the frontline of mitigation efforts.⁸

·         Strategic Energy Partnerships: The global shift toward renewable energy is creating new geopolitical dependencies. Alliances are forming around control of essential minerals (like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements) required for battery and solar technology, potentially replacing oil and gas alliances.

·         Shared Early Warning Systems: Cooperation on disaster risk reduction, meteorological data sharing, and joint humanitarian response efforts are strengthening ties between regional blocs (e.g., ASEAN, the EU).

B. Fragmentation Along North-South Divides

The issue of historical responsibility and differential capacity continues to strain relations between the developed North and the developing South.⁹

·         The Adaptation/Mitigation Divide: Poorer, climate-vulnerable nations often prioritize adaptation (building defenses, securing water) while richer nations prioritize mitigation (reducing emissions).¹⁰ Disputes over climate finance—who pays for the damage and the transition—are a persistent source of diplomatic friction and mistrust, often fracturing unity within G7, G20, and UN frameworks.

·         Protectionism and Carbon Tariffs: The introduction of measures like carbon border adjustments (taxes on imports from countries with lax climate policies) by wealthy blocs, while aimed at environmental degradation reduction, risks being viewed as a protectionist trade barrier, further straining multilateral trade alliances and the WTO system.¹¹

 

IV. The Integration of Climate into Strategic Planning

Major global powers and defense organizations are no longer viewing climate change as an environmental sideline; they are integrating it directly into their core defense and national security doctrines.¹²

A. Military Readiness and Disaster Response

The US Department of Defense, NATO, and other defense bodies now classify climate change as a critical operational risk.¹³

·         Base Resilience: Coastal naval bases and military installations are increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and extreme weather, requiring massive investment in climate-proofing infrastructure.

·         Increased Humanitarian Deployments: Military forces are increasingly tasked with large-scale humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations, diverting resources from traditional combat roles and shifting strategic priorities toward domestic and regional stabilization.¹⁴

B. Climate Diplomacy as a Tool of Foreign Policy

Climate resilience and clean energy technology transfer are becoming vital tools of diplomatic engagement, competing with traditional foreign aid and military assistance. Offering expertise and funding for climate adaptation can be used to strengthen alliances, counter the influence of rival powers, and build long-term stability in vulnerable regions.

 

Conclusion: The Unavoidable Security Horizon

The destabilizing effects of environmental degradation and climate change are accelerating, moving the topic from academic theory to operational reality. From the melting Arctic ice that unlocks new strategic rivalries to the drought-ridden Sahel that breeds instability and terrorism, the consequences are fundamentally reshaping global security and the balance of power.

The great geopolitical challenge of this century will be balancing the fragmentation caused by resource competition and migration pressures against the existential necessity for global cooperation on climate action. Success will require the world’s leading powers to transcend narrow self-interest and embed climate security at the very heart of their diplomacy, defense, and alliance structures. Only by treating climate change as the systemic security threat it is can the world hope to navigate the tumultuous geopolitical waters ahead.

How will your nation's security strategy need to evolve to address the rising threat of climate-induced instability?